It’s been a long weekend in Scottish Politics – so much so, I’ve had to split up my thoughts over 2 posts. Part 1 looking at the Green Party, and the SNP’s impending Civil War is available here. Here, I look at how Labour and the Tories face a similar problem in Scotland – but have taken 2 different paths to find the answer.

The Tories and Labour

Of course – there are Civil Wars that can rage for months and years before they resolve. Others, though, can be over by tea-time.

On Thursday, Jackson Carlaw gave, by all accounts, a fair showing at FMQs. No knock-out blows, but a steady hand. 4 hours later, and he was no longer Scottish Conservative Leader. He was just shy of 6 months in the job. Within an hour Douglas Ross MP (for Moray) was being touted as the ‘obvious successor’. The next day, he announced his bid – logo et al.

The Scottish Tory Leadership contest is not – of itself – particularly interesting. The Scottish Tories are going backwards, and it’s hard to run as the “Ruth Davidson against a Second Referendum Party” when your leader is no longer Ruth Davidson. Consensus is that the Men in Grey Kilts showed up at Carlaw’s door and he was asked to draft his Resignation letter. The people who decided Carlaw’s resignation – it is generally accepted – where Scottish Tory Higher ups, and UK Tory leaders. The most interesting thing from a Tory perspective is that Douglas Ross being the only MP to resign over ‘the Dominic Cummings Road Trip’ – creating a bit of clear blue water between him and Boris Johnson (who, until then, he had backed to the hilt) take on a bit of a different perspective.

But, the most interesting thing from everyone else’s perspective is that, when a party is struggling to gain support in the polls, an unpopular leader resigning (or ‘resigning’) a year out from a General Election is something that can happen in Scotland.

Apropos of nothing, a YouGov Poll out today says that 56% of Scots have no opinion of Richard Leonard, and that even among Labour 2019 voters, he has a net approval rating of -14. And other than labour Peer George Foulkes and life-long Labour supporter Archie MacPherson calling on Leonard to quit for the sake of the Party, it’s actually been one of the quieter weeks for Scottish Labour. Never one to stay quiet and let things pass by, Momentum’s Scottish Flavour (Campaign For Socialism) have interpreted these as attacks and called on Keir Starmer and Jackie Ballie to distance themselves from these “attacks” – even though it hadn’t up to then been anywhere near the statements (and, it’s worth noting that CfS have not provided any information to suggest they were at all involved). CfS Chair Vince Mills believed that this was clearly a “coordinated attack from the right of the party” and questioned the commitment to the Party of those now questioning Leaonard’s leadership.

In 2016, Mills called on previous Leader, Kez Dugdale, to resign if electoral results were unsatisfactory. The next year, under Dugdale’s leadership, Scottish Labour gained 6 MPs in Scotland.

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The problem for the Tories for Labour Party face is essentially the same – in the face of a seemingly insurmountable Government Party, neither is able to make their mark, and, it appears their leader isn’t helping. One recognising this has stood down (or been stood down); the other fully intends to lead his Party into next year’s elections. Whether anything will be able to turn round the parties’ fortunes in time for next May is a different matter.

Douglas Ross offers nothing new for the Scottish Tories – and offers nothing new for Scotland generally. They will oppose a second referendum and oppose independence – but this time, they don’t have Ruth Davidson on a tank. He can only take the Tories backwards.

Labour and the Tories aren’t fighting to form the next Scottish Government – they’re fighting to be the next opposition. Our Mission for 2021 must be to make sure we deprive the SNP (and SNP offshoots) of a majority of seats and, in doing so, help set the Parliament’s agenda for the next 5 years. An SNP who cannot rely on a ‘pro-indy’ majority, cannot just fight for Independence for the next 5 years – they might have to actually do something! To do so, they would need to rely on another party, and that could be us.

Our votes can be vital in future health legislation, education policy, care services, budget setting and local government reform. The more Labour MSPs, the louder that voice – but if there is an SNP majority (which with every indy-offshoot, becomes more difficult) it would be shouting into the wind.

Kez Dugdale became leader at a time she shouldn’t have been. Her talent had been spotted, and her ability to seem ‘normal’ was clear – but she was not supposed to become leader when she did. Jim Murphy was not supposed to lose his seat in 2015, but he did. In the most WTF political moment of 2015 (it was a simpler time then) he won his Vote of Confidence at the Labour SEC meeting…and then promptly quit anyway. It was in these circumstances that led to Dugdale being leader. She was supposed to be part of the future of the party, not its present. Yet now, she is 3 years in our past.

It’s for this reason that I think, on balance, I agree with Mills – I don’t think Leonard should resign as Leader before May…probably. To sell the message that we are able to shape and even lead in the debates of the future, Labour needs a new raft of candidates (and hopefully MSPs) who can be that future. And to do that, unfortunately, we will need to try and leave the (anticipated) defeat of 2021 in the past. The leader who suffers that defeat needs to be part of that past. Leonard will suit that role.

Don’t get me wrong – I will do all I can to have as many Labour MSPs elected next May as I can. I would love nothing better that for there to be a Labour Scottish Government in June – but I can count. Denying the SNP a majority seems to be the attainable goal. And it may be that to achieve even that, we need to get a leader that people know the name of. But if it can be helped, to help us rebuild the future – Leonard can serve our party by being the last line of Corbynism in our past.