The Scottish Political landscape at the end of this week is, in some ways, unpredictably different from the start of it. In others – in perhaps the most predictable of ways – it is not. And, for once, it seems to have touched the 4 main parties in Scotland – while Willie Rennie has had, I’m sure, a lovely time.

The Greens

You may have missed it, because it’s been quite low-key, but Patrick Harvie has resigned as an Honourary Associate of the National Secular Society. This is in objection to their campaign against the new Hate Crime Bill currently being introduced in the Scottish Parliament.

The issue Harvie has with this partnership is not the the campaign against the Bill per se, but their coalition partners – The Christian Institute. This religious-right group has a long and inglorious history of opposing equality legislation, and their history opposing LGB rights, and with the Gender Recognition Act (The ‘GRA’) (and the T in LGBT-rights being a very live issue in Scotland), he could not countenance supporting this coalition, even by association.

This is a fair and honourable stance to take – and the Greens are the only party in Holyrood who seem to have a clear and united position on the GRA. The Labour Party (to whom we shall come) are yet to official adopt a stance, and the SNP…well…

The SNP

A Leader is only powerful as long as you can picture them as leader – and usually, being leader of a party sitting at +50% in the polls and having a personal approval rating in the +30% range would mean no-one would be able to see past you. Unless you are Nicola Sturgeon.

For the past 4 months Nicola Sturgeon has has no opposition from other parties, but the internal opposition has never been more vociferous than at any point since 2005, when Alex Salmond last regained the reins of the Party. Unfortunately for Sturgeon, it looks increasingly like Salmond doesn’t want to make 2005 the last time he regains control of the party – and this battle has been fought on two very oddly connected fields.

The GRA has increasingly become a proxy battle between Sturgeon and Salmond forces – with the former more pro-GRA, and the latter becoming increasingly vocal opponents. Joanna Cherry, an SNP MP has previously “raised concerns” with the GRA. But, dispite the apparent heat in this debate, it has become increasingly distanced from its cental issue (Salmond hasn’t given a view on the GRA; and it was Strugeon’s Scottish Government who at first introduced the Bill, and then ‘paused’ it), but that hasn’t stopped the fight.

And nowhere is the battle raging more that in the heart of Edinburgh. What seems like years ago, both Joanna Cherry and Angus Robertson (former MP) both declared they wanted to stand for the Edinburgh Central seat in next year’s Scottish Parliament elections. Angus Robertson, with whom Nicola Sturgeon has a long working relationship and, even went as far as formally launching his campaign last week. Johanna Cherry, whose staff were seen outside the High Court Trial during a recent high-profile High Court case, is suspected to be closer to Mr Salmond. The contest was expected to become a high-profile, intense succession-battle-by-proxy.

But on Thursday, just days after Angus Robertson officially fired the starting gun on his campaign, came a rules stitch-up that even Mandelson would have been proud of, the it emerged that the National Executive Committee of the SNP were going to consider putting a £10,000 cost on an MP standing in a Holyrood Election (apparently to cover the campaign costs of the ensuing by-election). This was met with outrage in the Salmondite quarters, but really, not much of a barrier to experienced advocate, Queens Counsel and MP-for-4-years Cherry to jump. But in a change that I still can’t tell was planned or not, the decision was changed meaning that any MP who wanted to stand for an MSP seat had to resign their current seat in order to be considered as an SNP candidate. Within the hour, Cherry announced that she would not be standing in Edinburgh Central. In another Mandelsonian move, it was also revealed that the SNP Candidate selection will be from an all-women shortlist. Sitting MSP James Dornan, who announced some months ago he would be standing down in 2021, but further announced some weeks ago that he had changed his mind, was…not best pleased.

If you can indulge me for a moment – for me, this is amusing. It is not often that a member of the Scottish Labour Party can look at the SNP and go “You know, I don’t want what they have” . My position at the end of Friday remains my position:

I'm not saying that the SNP's approach to dealing with Cherry and Dornan is proper…but it is really quite funny.

— Paul Cruikshank (@PAShanky) July 31, 2020

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There has long been mooted the possibility of an SNP Civil War. It was going to come after 2016 when they lost their majority in Holyrood…then it didn’t. It was going to come after Brexit when Sturgeon didn’t move for #IndyRef2…then it didn’t. It was going to come after the 2017 General Election, then the SNP went backwards in Westminster (which was still a great result, but when you win Platinum, Gold loses its glimmer)…and then it didn’t. Then the Euro Elections, then more delays about #IndyRef – but still there was nothing. Then, the Scottish Parliamentary inquiry into the Salmond allegations happened, followed by a (I think it is fair to say) unexpected Full acquittal. Nothing. Tension, yes. Battle lines drawn, possibly. But not a shot fired.

But that acquittal, delivered shortly after Coronavirus lockdown created a political-news vacuum, was a pivot-point. Suddenly there emerged a Prince across the Water for those who want Independence and Independence Now. Other Indy-focused parties have appeared (the ISP, Alliance for Independence and the Wings Party) in an effort to increase pro-Indy MSPs next year by standing on the Regional List, hoping to use an otherwise inefficient SNP vote.

Salmond has still not rejoined the SNP after his acquittal. And the new SNP rule only prevents Joanna Cherry seeking election as an SNP MSP if she refuses to resign – there is no law preventing dual MP/MSP mandates. Just ask one Mr. A Salmond.

Only the SNP could stop an SNP victory next year – and until this week, the line was being held relatively well. And I applaud the Sturgeon-faction for taking action (and making a decent decision in different circumstances). But it may be that the Battle of Fort Kinnaird* is the opening shot of the long expected SNP Civil War.

There is, frankly, too much Politics for 1 post – Part 2 will be posted later tonight.

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* Yes, I know that technically Fort Kinnaird Shopping Centre is in Edinburgh Eastern – but the Civil War metaphor demanded a little bit of Geographic Licence.